Infrastructure Impact: The Ramifications of Federal Spending

In this four-part series, we examine areas that could create long-term impacts in the lives of people in the U.S. should the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure spending bill become law.

One of the negative ramifications of large-scale federal spending is the risk of higher prices for goods and services. As more money is infused in the economy, consumer demand increases and supplies are strained, creating upward pressure on prices. The Wall Street Journal reported Aug. 11 that “Consumer prices rose 5.4 percent in July from a year earlier.”

Prices for hotels, restaurants, groceries and gasoline all increased from the month of June. However, some of the jump could be attributed to recovery from the economic shutdown as consumers release pent-up demand for goods and services.

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a designated market basket of consumer goods and services, found costs rose 5.4% since last year. In July, the CPI rose 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. And the index for all items, less food and energy, increased 0.3% in July; up 4.3% over the past year. As the economy recovers, businesses face worker shortages, placing inflationary pressure on wages. The Bureau reports: “Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, from March 2021 to June 2021. Over the year, total compensation rose 2.9 percent, wages and salaries rose 3.2 percent, and benefit costs rose 2.2 percent.”

The Washington Post reports prices will continue to rise. “For months, the Fed (Federal Reserve Board) and White House have said inflation will keep climbing as consumer demand surges while supply chains struggle to catch up. Their expectation is that as supply backlogs have time to clear, inflation will settle back down closer to the Fed’s 2 percent annual target,” the article reports.

The Council of State Governments continues to follow the latest on the infrastructure bill and offers a full rundown of ways states can utilize potential funding and the impact that funding will have. To learn more, visit: web.csg.org/recovery.


What State Leaders Need to Know about the Build Back Better Proposal

The Biden administration announced Oct. 28 a proposed framework for its Build Back Better initiative. After weeks of negotiations and with still more to come as details and budget language are finalized, the approximately $1.8 trillion package includes substantial federal investments for: 

  • Free universal preschool education to children ages three and four. 
  • Subsidies for child care. 
  • A one-year extension in the expanded child care tax credit. 
  • An increase in the maximum Pell Grant award. 
  • Assistance for low-income renters. 
  • Subsidies for individuals who purchase insurance through the Affordable Care Act (until 2025).  
  • Hearing coverage under Medicare.  
  • Support for in-home and in-community elder care. 
  • Tax incentives to increase electric vehicle manufacturing and purchase and move utilities toward solar and other renewable energy sources. 

The proposal is paid for by a series of tax increases on corporations and high-income earners.  

The proposal does not include other discussed initiatives, including free community college access, paid leave for workers, expansion of Medicare to include vision and dental coverage and authorizing Medicare to negotiate drug prices. 

What this Means for State Leaders 

While details of the bill are finalized, the Biden administration’s Build Back Better framework provides state leaders insight into how this package will impact their states. The framework relates to state and local government efforts in facilitating access to preschool, child care, postsecondary education, health care and housing security. State and local government involvement will be further clarified as the legislative language is finalized. 

Bill Outlook 

The proposal is being developed only by Democrats in Congress and, as such, is intended to move toward passage in the Senate and House through a budget maneuver known as reconciliation. This process allows for a proposal to pass by majority vote in both chambers, bypassing several points of congressional procedure including the need for the Senate to approve a cloture motion (i.e. to end debate on a bill), which takes 60 votes. With the Senate divided among 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and two independents (who caucus with the Democrats), reconciliation is the only vehicle forward in the absence of Republican votes. 

As the bill is finalized, it will be scored by the Congressional Budget Office to clarify the cost of the package and the revenue raised by the tax increases and other changes to ensure the bill is revenue neutral (i.e. pays for itself). The Senate Parliamentarian also will review the final measure to ensure everything in the package is sufficiently budget related (a requirement for the reconciliation process). A potential sticking point is whether proposed language related to changes in U.S. immigration policy are appropriate for reconciliation. For example, the proposal includes investments to streamline immigration processing to reduce the backlog of visa applications. 

Much of the negotiation centered around whether and how the proposal will be paired with the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill currently under consideration in the House. The Senate approved the measure in August (by a vote of 69-30), but progressive Democrats in the House have withheld support until agreement on the Build Back Better package is reached.  

The Biden administration announcement came in the shadow of two important dates. First, the president leaves Thursday for Europe, where he will attend a G-20 Summit focused on climate change. Democratic leaders in Congress wanted to provide assurance to other countries of the U.S. intent to invest in clean energy initiatives. Second, voters head to the polls to elect governors in New Jersey and Virginia. Congressional Democrats wanted to produce a result, even if unsettled, before the election in an effort to boost Democratic candidate chances in the two elections, which are expected to be close. Pundits have traditionally seen the results of these two elections as indicative of the public’s mood heading into the following year’s congressional elections. 

More information on the Build Back Better proposal is available here

As with the American Rescue Plan Act passed in March 2021, analysts at The Council of State Governments will continue analyzing the Build Back Better proposal and Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and provide to members regular updates, particularly as it relates to how funds will be distributed among state and local governments and any guidelines attached to the funding. 

Stay Safe Online

October is Cyber Security Awareness Month. With so much of today’s business and communications managed with the help of the internet, the understanding and practice of cyber security is a requirement.


“Always be vigilant,” said Rob Main, interim state chief risk officer with the North Carolina Department of Information Technology. “If something seems too good to be true, it probably is.”
Main said that so often people fall prey online to the often unrecognizable “telltale signs of malicious intent.”

Main said that often someone might fill out a survey on social media that will ask questions that could be used as password clues for secure websites.


“Malicious intent involves the execution of social engineering methods which can occur through vishing, phishing, and smishing (among other means),” Main said. “These methods would include a sense of urgency, misspellings or mispronunciations, an enticement to reveal protected information and/or malicious content. The takeaway: a healthy dose of skepticism will help maintain vigilance when dealing with questionable communication.”

During Spring 2021, internet hackers were able to cause severe disruption to Colonial Pipeline, the nation’s largest refined oil pipeline. According to Bloomberg, hackers were able to access to the company’s network through a private account. From there, hackers were able to shut down operations, causing fuel delays along the East Coast. The hackers issued a ransom note for $4.4 million in cryptocurrency. The company shut down operations and ended up paying the ransom to restore fuel to Americans.

Bloomberg reported that, while the hacked account used a virtual private network (VPN), no multi-factor authenticator was used.

Main, who urges the use of multi-factor authentication, said he had spent time at Microsoft headquarters. There, a vice president with the company cautioned that 99.8% of security-related concerns would be mitigated by multi-factor authentication.

Stay Safe Online, a program of the National Cybersecurity Alliance, offers several tips to stay safe while using the internet.

Tips to Stay Safe

  • Use strong passwords, avoiding contact specific words like “MarysLaptop.”
  • Passwords should restrict common words.
  • Keep operating systems current.
  • If using a personal device, always keep antivirus and spyware software updated and turned on

For more safety tips, visit staysafeonline.org/cybersecurity-awareness-month.

Infrastructure Fallout: The Long-Term Ramifications of Federal Spending

In this four-part series, analysts at The Council of State Governments (CSG) examine areas that could create long-term impacts in the lives of American Citizens should the $1 trillion spending bill become law.

The $1 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill (BIB) proposes to allocate federal dollars to a multitude of projects. For example, $2 billion is designated for rural road expansion, bridges and surface transportation projects. BIB also provides $3 billion for the Tribal Transportation program over five years. The Tribal Transportation Program is the largest of the Office of Federal Lands Highway, receiving $505 million in Fiscal Year 2020, according to Public Law 114-94.

In July, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) joined the Coalition for Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment, lauding the infrastructure plan as necessary because the nation’s infrastructure systems are unacceptable for a 21st Century economy.

However, a 2015 article from McKinsey & Company, a global management consulting firm, points to potential negative ramifications of such large-scale infrastructure projects.

“The risks associated with megaprojects — those that cost $1 billion or more — are well documented. In one influential study, Bent Flyvbjerg, an expert in project management at Oxford’s business school, estimated that nine out of ten go over budget. Rail projects, for example, go over budget by an average of 44.7 percent, and their demand is overestimated by 51.4 percent. McKinsey has estimated that bridges and tunnels incur an average 35 percent cost overrun; for roads, it’s 20 percent. Given that many projects are approved with a 20 percent return on investment expected, this leaves governments to pick up the tab for the rest,” the article stated.

The article went on to assert such infrastructure project timelines often are underestimated and that these projects can often take 10 to 15 years to complete.

In addition, there is growing concern about delays caused by a shortage of skilled workers necessary to completing the projects. According to John M. Irvine, a senior vice president at Anchor Construction: “I’d be surprised if there’s any firm out there saying they’re ready for this. “We will have to staff up, and no, there are not enough skilled workers to fill these jobs.”

Overall, the timeline on some of these massive projects that will result from the Infrastructure bill that is currently sitting in the United States House of Representatives could potentially create more headaches in the immediate future — traffic jams and road closures — with final results decades away.

Sources:

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/megaprojects-the-good-the-bad-and-the-better

https://highways.dot.gov/federal-lands/programs-tribal

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/09/us/politics/biden-infrastructure-plan

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/02/us/roads-infrastructure-bill.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/business/infrastructure-deal-bipartisan-roads.html

NBWA Announces More than 26,000 Employees Trained through Distributors Against Human Trafficking Initiative

by Julianne Stahl

The National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA), a CSG Associate, announced that more than 26,000 beer distribution employees have been trained through its Distributors Against Human Trafficking initiative.  NBWA made the announcement during its 84th Annual Convention and Trade Show in Las Vegas. This surpasses NBWA’s goal to train 25,000 beer distribution employees across the country to spot and report signs of human trafficking by the end of this year. The initiative has been recognized with the American Society of Association Executives 2021 “Power of A” Gold Award.

Working alongside a bipartisan group of state attorneys general and state alcohol regulators, the Distributors Against Human Trafficking initiative centers around an awareness training video to help train the more than 140,000 beer distribution employees in the U.S. to recognize and report signs of human trafficking. Beer distributors are uniquely positioned to help fight this heinous crime given their level of access to locations often unseen by the public as they visit around 600,000 licensed retailers across the country.

“We have been blown away by the support our members have shown for the Distributors Against Human Trafficking initiative since its launch last year,” said NBWA President and CEO Craig Purser. “Our initial goal was to train just over 10,000 beer distributors to recognize and report the signs of human trafficking by the end of 2021. We have now more than doubled that number with more than 26,000 employees trained.”  

“Because of this campaign, more and more hardworking men and women across the country are looking for signs of human trafficking,” Purser continued. “Beer distributors are making a difference — they are helping save peoples’ lives. NBWA promises our continued support, and we will make our best effort to provide the resources necessary to keep beer distributors vigilant in this fight, ensuring they’re well positioned to do their part to eradicate this crime from the communities they love and know so well.” 

For more information about the initiative, visit nbwa.org.

Mental Health Resource Guide for State Policymakers

By: Sean Slone

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a significant impact on the nation’s mental health. Fortunately, this global pandemic has also placed a spotlight on both the long-standing challenges in providing mental health services and the programs, policies, interventions and legal remedies that have proven most effective in addressing those challenges.

As the pandemic entered its second year, The Council of State Governments (CSG) embarked on a nine-month partnership with The Commonwealth Fund to assemble this Mental Health Resource Guide for State Policymakers. The goal of the project was to highlight the challenges and solutions across these four focus areas in mental health policy:

  • Social isolation and loneliness
  • Maternal mental health
  • Social determinants of mental health
  • Mental health insurance parity

To inform the content of this resource guide, CSG formed a 19-member advisory group made up of state legislators from six states, state executive branch health officials from eight additional states and subject-matter experts in each focus area. During a series of meetings in the spring and summer of 2021, the group heard presentations about existing research findings related to the challenges in each area and shared strategies for addressing them. The discussions were informed by the work of the CSG research team, which produced extensive research and policy scans for each focus area.

With oversight from The Commonwealth Fund and input from other stakeholders, CSG policy analysts and researchers drew on information gleaned during the advisory group sessions, those extensive summaries and additional research to produce the series of briefs that comprise this resource guide. Each focus area section includes:

  • A policy brief that succinctly defines the issue, considers the policy challenges and reviews the menu of legislative, programmatic and other opportunities available to policymakers based on previously enacted successful policies
  • A brief on approaches to data collection and analysis that advises policymakers on strategies to build research that is focused on the most effective interventions and that addresses how to emulate successful programs and how to implement experimental research designs for new programs
  • A case study brief highlighting a successful program, intervention, initiative or state law designed to address a particular negative outcome, often within a specific community, that has been championed by state policymakers or others

As the nation begins to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, many of the strategies contained within this resource guide can help policymakers address the mental health challenges that have united many Americans during this time, despite differences in age, race, identity, geography, political leaning or cultural affiliation. These strategies — from the simplest to the most complex — can be an important step forward to further connecting individuals and communities, recognizing the importance of mental health to a collective future.

CSG Mental Health Resource Guide for State Policymakers

Read the Resource Guide Executive Summary

Read the Resource Guide Materials on Social Isolation and Loneliness

Read the Resource Guide Materials on Maternal Mental Health

Read the Resource Guide Materials on Social Determinants of Mental Health

Read the Resource Guide Materials on Mental Health Insurance Parity